Bitcoin Volatility Drops Below Major Stock Indices

By: cryptosheadlines|2025/05/14 14:45:04
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Airdrop Is Live CaryptosHeadlines Media Has Launched Its Native Token CHT. Airdrop Is Live For Everyone, Claim Instant 5000 CHT Tokens Worth Of $50 USDT. Join the Airdrop at the official website, CryptosHeadlinesToken.com 8h05 4 min read by Luc Jose A. In a crypto market where volatility is the norm, Bitcoin has just crossed an unexpected threshold. It is now less volatile than the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. This subtle but significant shift, revealed by Galaxy Digital, challenges a decade of perception of an asset deemed too risky for traditional portfolios. More than a simple technical indicator, this signal could mark a lasting change in status for the first cryptocurrency. In BriefBitcoin now shows lower volatility than the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, according to Galaxy Digital, an unprecedented situation for an asset long considered unstable.Key indicators such as the Bloomberg Dollar Index and gold have experienced significant fluctuations, reinforcing the perception of Bitcoin as a counter-asset in crises.The inflow of institutional capital, notably via ETFs, contributes to this stabilization, supported by prudent risk management in crypto markets.With 95 % of Bitcoin supply already in circulation, scarcity strengthens its image as a digital safe haven, comparable to gold in a world of monetary restructuring.Volatility Increasingly Comparable to Traditional AssetsOn May 12, Galaxy Digital revealed that Bitcoin’s 10-day realized volatility had fallen to 43.86, a level now lower than the S&P 500 (47.29) and Nasdaq 100 (51.26). This is considered an exceptional situation for a historically unstable asset.Analysts note in their report :An unusual position for a crypto historically known for its excessive volatility.This shift comes as traditional markets show signs of fragility, especially since Donald Trump’s surprise announcement on April 2 regarding the “tariff liberation day”, which amplified international economic tensions.In this context, Bitcoin has not only stabilized but has risen by 11 % over the period, sharply contrasting with the stagnation of stock indices. Several major economic indicators, meanwhile, have experienced increased volatility :The Nasdaq Composite remained almost stable despite the turbulence ;The Bloomberg Dollar Index dropped nearly 4 % ;Gold briefly crossed the symbolic threshold of $3,500 an ounce before pulling back 5.75 %.Galaxy Digital compares this situation to that observed in 2018–2019 during trade tensions between the United States and China, a period during which Bitcoin had already established itself as a safe-haven asset.This parallel highlights an emerging dynamic. In phases of systemic crisis, Bitcoin tends to behave as a macroeconomic counter-asset, a role until now reserved for commodities such as gold.The Growing Influence of Institutional Players in Bitcoin StabilizationBeyond recent fluctuations, Galaxy Digital identifies a deeper trend: the decline of Bitcoin’s beta relative to major indices, despite still high 30-day correlations with the S&P (0.62) and Nasdaq (0.64).This risk profile change indicates that “investors are beginning to see Bitcoin less as a high-risk asset and more as a long-term allocation”, comments Chris Rhine, Head of Liquid Strategies at Galaxy.In other words, Bitcoin would be moving out of the speculative assets category to join the sustainable portfolio components.This evolution is also supported by the rise of institutional liquidity. Hank Huang, CEO of Kronos Research, notes that ongoing inflows towards ETFs and recurring strategic Bitcoin purchases “help transform it into a digital version of gold, less correlated with equities”.This stabilization is made possible, according to Galaxy, by a market “tactically cautious but structurally constructive”, characterized by disciplined leverage usage and low pressure on hedging strategies. With 95% of total Bitcoin supply already mined, the asset’s mechanical scarcity reinforces this maturity dynamic.This transformation could ultimately reshape the landscape of international reserves. On April 25, Jay Jacobs, Head of Thematic ETFs at BlackRock, noted that states are gradually reducing their dependence on the dollar to turn to alternative assets such as gold... and now Bitcoin. “Geopolitical fragmentation fuels demand for uncorrelated assets”, he explained, explicitly mentioning Bitcoin’s growing role as a safe haven alongside the precious metal.Maximize your Cointribune experience with our “Read to Earn” program! For every article you read, earn points and access exclusive rewards. Sign up now and start earning benefits.Luc Jose A.Diplômé de Sciences Po Toulouse et titulaire d’une certification consultant blockchain délivrée par Alyra, j’ai rejoint l’aventure Cointribune en 2019.Convaincu du potentiel de la blockchain pour transformer de nombreux secteurs de l’économie, j’ai pris l’engagement de sensibiliser et d’informer le grand public sur cet écosystème en constante évolution. Mon objectif est de permettre à chacun de mieux comprendre la blockchain et de saisir les opportunités qu’elle offre. Je m’efforce chaque jour de fournir une analyse objective de l’actualité, de décrypter les tendances du marché, de relayer les dernières innovations technologiques et de mettre en perspective les enjeux économiques et sociétaux de cette révolution en marche.DISCLAIMERThe views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. 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Before using Musk's "Western WeChat" X Chat, you need to understand these three questions

The X Chat will be available for download on the App Store this Friday. The media has already covered the feature list, including self-destructing messages, screenshot prevention, 481-person group chats, Grok integration, and registration without a phone number, positioning it as the "Western WeChat." However, there are three questions that have hardly been addressed in any reports.


There is a sentence on X's official help page that is still hanging there: "If malicious insiders or X itself cause encrypted conversations to be exposed through legal processes, both the sender and receiver will be completely unaware."


Question One: Is this encryption the same as Signal's encryption?


No. The difference lies in where the keys are stored.


In Signal's end-to-end encryption, the keys never leave your device. X, the court, or any external party does not hold your keys. Signal's servers have nothing to decrypt your messages; even if they were subpoenaed, they could only provide registration timestamps and last connection times, as evidenced by past subpoena records.


X Chat uses the Juicebox protocol. This solution divides the key into three parts, each stored on three servers operated by X. When recovering the key with a PIN code, the system retrieves these three shards from X's servers and recombines them. No matter how complex the PIN code is, X is the actual custodian of the key, not the user.


This is the technical background of the "help page sentence": because the key is on X's servers, X has the ability to respond to legal processes without the user's knowledge. Signal does not have this capability, not because of policy, but because it simply does not have the key.


The following illustration compares the security mechanisms of Signal, WhatsApp, Telegram, and X Chat along six dimensions. X Chat is the only one of the four where the platform holds the key and the only one without Forward Secrecy.


The significance of Forward Secrecy is that even if a key is compromised at a certain point in time, historical messages cannot be decrypted because each message has a unique key. Signal's Double Ratchet protocol automatically updates the key after each message, a mechanism lacking in X Chat.


After analyzing the X Chat architecture in June 2025, Johns Hopkins University cryptology professor Matthew Green commented, "If we judge XChat as an end-to-end encryption scheme, this seems like a pretty game-over type of vulnerability." He later added, "I would not trust this any more than I trust current unencrypted DMs."


From a September 2025 TechCrunch report to being live in April 2026, this architecture saw no changes.


In a February 9, 2026 tweet, Musk pledged to undergo rigorous security tests of X Chat before its launch on X Chat and to open source all the code.



As of the April 17 launch date, no independent third-party audit has been completed, there is no official code repository on GitHub, the App Store's privacy label reveals X Chat collects five or more categories of data including location, contact info, and search history, directly contradicting the marketing claim of "No Ads, No Trackers."


Issue 2: Does Grok know what you're messaging in private?


Not continuous monitoring, but a clear access point.


For every message on X Chat, users can long-press and select "Ask Grok." When this button is clicked, the message is delivered to Grok in plaintext, transitioning from encrypted to unencrypted at this stage.


This design is not a vulnerability but a feature. However, X Chat's privacy policy does not state whether this plaintext data will be used for Grok's model training or if Grok will store this conversation content. By actively clicking "Ask Grok," users are voluntarily removing the encryption protection of that message.


There is also a structural issue: How quickly will this button shift from an "optional feature" to a "default habit"? The higher the quality of Grok's replies, the more frequently users will rely on it, leading to an increase in the proportion of messages flowing out of encryption protection. The actual encryption strength of X Chat, in the long run, depends not only on the design of the Juicebox protocol but also on the frequency of user clicks on "Ask Grok."


Issue 3: Why is there no Android version?


X Chat's initial release only supports iOS, with the Android version simply stating "coming soon" without a timeline.


In the global smartphone market, Android holds about 73%, while iOS holds about 27% (IDC/Statista, 2025). Of WhatsApp's 3.14 billion monthly active users, 73% are on Android (according to Demand Sage). In India, WhatsApp covers 854 million users, with over 95% Android penetration. In Brazil, there are 148 million users, with 81% on Android, and in Indonesia, there are 112 million users, with 87% on Android.



WhatsApp's dominance in the global communication market is built on Android. Signal, with a monthly active user base of around 85 million, also relies mainly on privacy-conscious users in Android-dominant countries.


X Chat circumvented this battlefield, with two possible interpretations. One is technical debt; X Chat is built with Rust, and achieving cross-platform support is not easy, so prioritizing iOS may be an engineering constraint. The other is a strategic choice; with iOS holding a market share of nearly 55% in the U.S., X's core user base being in the U.S., prioritizing iOS means focusing on their core user base rather than engaging in direct competition with Android-dominated emerging markets and WhatsApp.


These two interpretations are not mutually exclusive, leading to the same result: X Chat's debut saw it willingly forfeit 73% of the global smartphone user base.


Elon Musk's "Super App"


This matter has been described by some: X Chat, along with X Money and Grok, forms a trifecta creating a closed-loop data system parallel to the existing infrastructure, similar in concept to the WeChat ecosystem. This assessment is not new, but with X Chat's launch, it's worth revisiting the schematic.



X Chat generates communication metadata, including information on who is talking to whom, for how long, and how frequently. This data flows into X's identity system. Part of the message content goes through the Ask Grok feature and enters Grok's processing chain. Financial transactions are handled by X Money: external public testing was completed in March, opening to the public in April, enabling fiat peer-to-peer transfers via Visa Direct. A senior Fireblocks executive confirmed plans for cryptocurrency payments to go live by the end of the year, holding money transmitter licenses in over 40 U.S. states currently.


Every WeChat feature operates within China's regulatory framework. Musk's system operates within Western regulatory frameworks, but he also serves as the head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). This is not a WeChat replica; it is a reenactment of the same logic under different political conditions.


The difference is that WeChat has never explicitly claimed to be "end-to-end encrypted" on its main interface, whereas X Chat does. "End-to-end encryption" in user perception means that no one, not even the platform, can see your messages. X Chat's architectural design does not meet this user expectation, but it uses this term.


X Chat consolidates the three data lines of "who this person is, who they are talking to, and where their money comes from and goes to" in one company's hands.


The help page sentence has never been just technical instructions.


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