Bitcoin’s Price Trends Show Weakening Momentum: Insights from Coindesk Analyst Oliver Knight

COINOTAG reported on May 14 that Coindesk’s analyst Oliver Knight highlighted a parallel between current Bitcoin price movements and the on-chain indicators observed in 2021, suggesting a potential formation of a “double top” structure. Knight emphasized the significance of the weekly RSI , which has exhibited three distinct bearish divergences in March and December 2024, as well as May 2025. This technical indicator serves to evaluate market conditions, signaling possible overbought or oversold situations; a bearish divergence denotes a decline in the RSI despite an uptick in prices. Moreover, the trading volume during the recent breakout has notably been lower compared to levels seen at the initial breakout of $100,000, indicating a diminishing momentum in this bullish trend. Institutional trading platforms have reported a significant reduction in activity, with the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Bitcoin futures trading volume failing to exceed 35,000 contracts three times in the last month, a stark contrast to previous levels that frequently surpassed 65,000 contracts. In addition, current observations reveal a divergence between open interest and price trends; open interest is down by 13% from the January spike to $109,000, while Bitcoin’s price has only retraced by 5.8%. Historical data shows that during Bitcoin’s ascent to $69,000 four years ago, open interest fell by 15.6%, despite a 6.6% price increase. Knight concluded that while Bitcoin may approach new highs akin to 2021, the underlying momentum appears to be waning.