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Greeks.live: The consensus points to low volatility remaining over the next two weeks, suggesting the market may continue to be flat and gradually decline
BlockBeats News, December 23, Greeks.live stated on social media that this week falls during the Christmas holiday, and the US stock market will be closed on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. During this period, institutional and retail investors in Europe and the US usually do not trade, and this trend typically continues until after New Year's Day. This Friday (the 26th) is the annual settlement day, with over 50% of the total options open interest currently awaiting expiration.
Most institutions have chosen to roll over positions in advance. Starting last week, the implied volatility (IV) of all major expiry dates has begun to decrease significantly, accompanied by an increase in block trades.
Under the combined effect of decreasing volatility, the Christmas trading period, and year-end position rolling, in the past month, the implied volatility of all major Bitcoin expiry dates has dropped by more than 5%, with the short-to-medium-term IV dropping by over 10%. Ethereum has seen an even greater IV decrease.
These data collectively indicate a subdued market expectation, with consensus pointing to a sustained low volatility for the next two weeks. The market is likely to remain flat for the next half month and is highly likely to gradually trend downwards.
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